EXAMPLE 1.9 - Cash Flows: Estimation and Diagramming



Each year Exxon-Mobil expends large amounts of funds for mechanical safety features throughout its worldwide operations. Carla Ramos, a lead engineer for Mexico and Central

American operations, plans expenditures of $1 million now and each of the next 4 years just for the improvement of fi eld-based pressure-release valves. Construct the cash fl ow diagram to fi  nd the equivalent value of these expenditures at the end of year 4, using a cost of capital estimate for safety-related funds of 12% per year.

Solution

Figure 1–7  indicates the uniform and negative cash fl ow series (expenditures) for fi  ve periods, and the unknown   F  value (positive cash fl  ow equivalent) at exactly the same time as the fi  fth expenditure. Since the expenditures start immediately, the fi rst $1 million is shown at time 0, not time 1. Therefore, the last negative cash fl ow occurs at the end of the fourth year, when   Falso occurs. To make this diagram have a full 5 years on the time scale, the addition of the year 1 completes the diagram. This addition demonstrates that year 0 is the end-of-period point for the year 1.

  Figure 1–7
Cash fl ow diagram, Example 1.9.




Cash Flows: Estimation and Diagramming


As mentioned in earlier sections, cash fl ows are the amounts of money estimated for future projects or observed for project events that have taken place. All cash fl ows occur during specifi c time periods, such as 1 month, every 6 months, or 1 year. Annual is the most common time period. For example, a payment of $10,000 once every year in December for 5 years is a series of 5 outgoing cash flows. And an estimated receipt of $500 every month for 2 years is a series of 24 incoming cash flows. Engineering economy bases its computations on the timing, size, and direction of cash fl  ows.  
 
Cash  infl  ows  are the receipts, revenues, incomes, and savings generated by project and business activity. A   plus sign  indicates a cash infl  ow.  
     

Cash  outfl  ows  are costs, disbursements, expenses, and taxes caused by projects and business activity. A   negative or minus sign  indicates a cash outfl ow. When a  project involves only costs, the minus sign may be omitted for some techniques, such as benefi  t/cost analysis.  

Of all the steps in  Figure 1–1  that outline the engineering economy study, estimating cash fl  ows (step 3) is the most diffi cult, primarily because it is an attempt to predict the future. Some examples of cash fl ow estimates are shown here. As you scan these, consider how the cash infl  ow or outfl ow may be estimated most accurately.

Cash  Infl  ow Estimates

 Income: +   $150,000 per year from sales of solar-powered watches 
  Savings: +  $24,500 tax savings from capital loss on equipment salvage 
  Receipt:  +  $750,000 received on large business loan plus accrued interest 
  Savings:  +   $150,000 per year saved by installing more effi cient air conditioning 
  Revenue: + $50,000 to $75,000 per month in sales for extended battery life iPhones  

Cash  Outfl  ow Estimates

 Operating  costs:- $230,000 per year annual operating costs for software services 
  First  cost: - $800,000 next year to purchase replacement earthmoving equipment 
  Expense: - $20,000 per year for loan interest payment to bank 
  Initial  cost: - $1 to $1.2 million in capital expenditures for a water recycling unit  

All of these are   point estimates  , that is,   single-value estimates  for cash fl ow elements of an alternative, except for the last revenue and cost estimates listed above. They provide a   range estimate,  because the persons estimating the revenue and cost do not have enough knowledge or experience with the systems to be more accurate. For the initial chapters, we will utilize point estimates. The use of risk and sensitivity analysis for range estimates is covered in the later chapters of this book.

 Once all cash infl ows and outfl ows are estimated (or determined for a completed project), the net cash fl  ow  for each time period is calculated.


 where NCF is net cash fl  ow,   R  is receipts, and   D  is disbursements.

At the beginning of this section, the   timing, size, and direction of cash fl ows  were mentioned as important. Because cash fl ows may take place at any time during an interest period, as a matter of convention, all cash fl ows are assumed to occur at the end of an interest period.

The end-of-period convention means that all cash infl ows and all cash outfl ows are assumed to take place at the   end of the interest period  in which they actually occur. When several infl  ows and outfl  ows occur within the same period, the   net  cash fl  ow is assumed to occur at the   end   of the period.  




In assuming end-of-period cash fl ows, it is important to understand that future  (F)  and uniform annual (A) amounts are located at the end of the interest period, which is not necessarily December 31. If in Example 1.7 the lump-sum deposit took place on July 1, 2011, the withdrawals will take place on July 1 of each succeeding year for 6 years. Remember, end of the period means end of interest period, not end of calendar year.

The   cash fl  ow diagram  is a very important tool in an economic analysis, especially when the cash fl ow series is complex. It is a graphical representation of cash fl ows drawn on the   y  axis with a time scale on the   x  axis. The diagram includes what is known, what is estimated, and what is needed. That is, once the cash fl ow diagram is complete, another person should be able to work the problem by looking at the diagram.

Cash fl  ow diagram time   t 0 is the present, and   t 1 is the end of time period 1. We assume that the periods are in years for now. The time scale of  Figure 1–4  is set up for 5 years. Since the end-of-year convention places cash fl ows at the ends of years, the “1” marks the end of year 1.
  
While it is not necessary to use an exact scale on the cash fl ow diagram, you will probably avoid errors if you make a neat diagram to approximate scale for both time and relative cash fl  ow magnitudes.

The direction of the arrows on the diagram is important to differentiate income from outgo. A vertical arrow pointing up indicates a positive cash fl ow. Conversely, a down-pointing arrow indicates a negative cash fl  ow.   We will use a bold, colored arrow to indicate what is unknown and to be determined.  For example, if a future value   F  is to be determined in year 5, a wide, colored arrow with   F ? is shown in year 5. The interest rate is also indicated on the diagram. Figure 1–5  illustrates a cash infl ow at the end of year 1, equal cash outfl ows at the end of years 2 and 3, an interest rate of 4% per year, and the unknown future value F after 5 years. The arrow for the unknown value is generally drawn in the opposite direction from the other cash fl  ows; however, the engineering economy computations will determine the actual sign on the   F   value.
 
Before the diagramming of cash fl ows, a perspective or vantage point must be determined so that or – signs can be assigned and the economic analysis performed correctly. Assume you borrow $8500 from a bank today to purchase an $8000 used car for cash next week, and you plan to spend the remaining $500 on a new paint job for the car two weeks from now. There are several perspectives possible when developing the cash fl ow diagram—those of the borrower (that’s you), the banker, the car dealer, or the paint shop owner. 

The cash fl ow signs and amounts for these perspectives are as follows.


  Figure 1–6
Cash fl ows from perspective of borrower for loan and purchases. 

    
One, and only one, of the perspectives is selected to develop the diagram.   For your perspective, all three cash fl ows are involved and the diagram appears as shown in  Figure 1–6  with a time scale of weeks. Applying the end-of-period convention, you have a receipt of $8500 now (time 0) and cash outfl  ows of $8000 at the end of week 1, followed by $500 at the end of week 2.


EXAMPLE 1.9 - Cash Flows: Estimation and Diagramming

EXAMPLE 1.10 - Cash Flows: Estimation and Diagramming

EXAMPLE 1.11 - Cash Flows: Estimation and Diagramming

 

 

EXAMPLE 1.8 - Terminology and Symbols

Last year Jane’s grandmother offered to put enough money into a savings account to generate $5000 in interest this year to help pay Jane’s expenses at college. (  a ) Identify the symbols, and (  b ) calculate the amount that had to be deposited exactly 1 year ago to earn $5000 in interest now, if the rate of return is 6% per year.

Solution 

(a) Symbols    P  (last year is 1) and   F  (this year) are needed.

(b) Let F = total amount now and P = original amount. We know that   F – P = $5000 is accrued interest. Now we can determine   P . Refer to Equations [1.1] through [1.4].
 
F = P  +  Pi   

The $5000 interest can be expressed as



EXAMPLE 1.7 - Terminology and Symbols

You plan to make a lump-sum deposit of $5000 now into an investment account that pays 6% per year, and you plan to withdraw an equal end-of-year amount of $1000 for 5 years, starting next year. At the end of the sixth year, you plan to close your account by withdrawing the remaining money. Defi ne the engineering economy symbols involved.

Solution

All  fi  ve symbols are present, but the future value in year 6 is the unknown.
   
P = $5000
A = $1000 per year for 5 years
F = ? at end of year 6
i  =  6% per year
n = 5 years for the A series and 6 for the  Fvalue   

EXAMPLE 1.6 - Terminology and Symbols

Today, Julie borrowed $5000 to purchase furniture for her new house. She can repay the loan in either of the two ways described below. Determine the engineering economy symbols and their value for each option.

 (a)    Five equal annual installments with interest based on 5% per year. 
 (b)    One payment 3 years from now with interest based on 7% per year.  

  Solution 

 (a)    The repayment schedule requires an equivalent annual amount   A , which is unknown.



 (b)    Repayment requires a single future amount F, which is unknown.


Terminology and Symbols


The equations and procedures of engineering economy utilize the following terms and symbols. Sample units are indicated.

     P = value or amount of money at a time designated as the present or time 0. Also   P   is referred to as present worth (PW), present value (PV), net present value (NPV), discounted cash fl  ow (DCF), and capitalized cost (CC); monetary units, such as dollars
     F = value or amount of money at some future time. Also   F  is called future worth (FW) and future value (FV); dollars
     A = series of consecutive, equal, end-of-period amounts of money. Also   A  is called the annual worth (AW) and equivalent uniform annual worth (EUAW); dollars per year, euros per month
     n =  number of interest periods; years, months, days
     i  = interest rate per time period; percent per year, percent per month
     t  = time, stated in periods; years, months, days

 The symbols P and   F  represent one-time occurrences: A occurs with the same value in each interest period for a specifi ed number of periods. It should be clear that a present value P represents a single sum of money at some time prior to a future value F or prior to the fi rst occurrence of an equivalent series amount   A .

   It is important to note that the symbol A always represents a uniform amount (i.e., the same amount each period) that extends through   consecutive  interest periods. Both conditions must exist before the series can be represented by A .

 The interest rate   i  is expressed in percent per interest period, for example, 12% per year. Unless stated otherwise, assume that the rate applies throughout the entire   n  years or interest periods. The decimal equivalent for   i  is always used in formulas and equations in engineering economy computations.

All engineering economy problems involve the element of time expressed as   n  and interest rate   i . In general, every problem will involve at least four of the symbols   P, F, A, n, and   i , with at least three of them estimated or known.

 Additional symbols used in engineering economy are defi ned in Appendix E.

EXAMPLE 1.6 - Terminology and Symbols 

EXAMPLE 1.7 - Terminology and Symbols

EXAMPLE 1.8 - Terminology and Symbols

 




EXAMPLE 1.5 Interest Rate and Rate of Return

  
(a)    Calculate the amount deposited 1 year ago to have $1000 now at an interest rate of 5% per year. 
  
(b)    Calculate the amount of interest earned during this time period.  

 Solution 

 (a)    The total amount accrued ($1000) is the sum of the original deposit and the earned interest.

If   X  is the original deposit,
 
  Total  accrued = deposit + deposit(interest rate) 
  $1000 =  X  +  X (0.05) =  X (1 + 0.05) = 1.05 X   

The original deposit is


  
(b)    Apply Equation [1.3] to determine the interest earned.
  
 Interest = $1000 - 952.38 = $47.62

In Examples 1.3 to 1.5 the interest period was 1 year, and the interest amount was calculated at the end of one period. When more than one interest period is involved, e.g., the amount of interest after 3 years, it is necessary to state whether the interest is accrued on a   simple  or   compound  basis from one period to the next. This topic is covered later in this chapter.
 
Since   infl  ation   can  signifi  cantly increase an interest rate, some comments about the fundamentals of infl ation are warranted at this early stage. By defi  nition, infl  ation represents a decrease in the value of a given currency. That is, $10 now will not purchase the same amount of gasoline for your car (or most other things) as $10 did 10 years ago. The changing value of the currency affects market interest rates.

In simple terms, interest rates refl ect two things: a so-called real rate of return   plus  the  expected infl  ation rate. The real rate of return allows the investor to purchase more than he or she could have purchased before the investment, while infl ation raises the real rate to the market rate that we use on a daily basis.
 
The safest investments (such as government bonds) typically have a 3% to 4% real rate of return built into their overall interest rates. Thus, a market interest rate of, say, 8% per year on a bond means that investors expect the infl  ation rate to be in the range of 4% to 5% per year.

Clearly, infl ation causes interest rates to rise.
 
 From the borrower’s perspective, the rate of infl ation is another interest rate   tacked on to the real interest rate . And from the vantage point of the saver or investor in a fi  xed-interest account, infl  ation   reduces the real rate of return  on the investment. Infl  ation means that cost and revenue cash fl ow estimates increase over time. This increase is due to the changing value of money that is forced upon a country’s currency by infl ation, thus making a unit of currency (such as the dollar) worth less relative to its value at a previous time. We see the effect of infl ation in that money purchases less now than it did at a previous time. Inflation contributes to
   •     A reduction in purchasing power of the currency
   •     An increase in the CPI (consumer price index)
   •     An increase in the cost of equipment and its maintenance
   •     An increase in the cost of salaried professionals and hourly employees
   •     A reduction in the real rate of return on personal savings and certain corporate investments

In other words, infl ation can materially contribute to changes in corporate and personal economic analysis.
  
Commonly, engineering economy studies assume that infl ation affects all estimated values equally. Accordingly, an interest rate or rate of return, such as 8% per year, is applied throughout the analysis without accounting for an additional infl ation rate. However, if infl ation were explicitly taken into account, and it was reducing the value of money at, say, an average of 4% per year, then it would be necessary to perform the economic analysis using an infl ated interest rate. (The rate is 12.32% per year using the relations derived in Chapter 14.)

EXAMPLE 1.4 Rate of Return and Rate of Return


Stereophonics, Inc., plans to borrow $20,000 from a bank for 1 year at 9% interest for new recording equipment. (  a ) Compute the interest and the total amount due after 1 year. (  b )  Construct a column graph that shows the original loan amount and total amount due after 1 year used to compute the loan interest rate of 9% per year.

Solution 

 (a)    Compute the total interest accrued by solving Equation [1.2] for interest accrued.

  Interest = $20,000(0.09) =  $1800  
 
The total amount due is the sum of principal and interest.

 Total  due = $20,000 + 1800 =  $21,800   

(b)     Figure 1–3  shows the values used in Equation [1.2]: $1800 interest, $20,000 original loan principal, 1-year interest period.  

  Figure 1–3
Values used to compute an interest rate of 9% per year. Example 1.4.


    
Comment

 Note that in part (  a ), the total amount due may also be computed as

  Total  due = principal(1 + interest rate) = $20,000(1.09) = $21,800  

 Later we will use this method to determine future amounts for times longer than one interest period. 

From the perspective of a saver, a lender, or an investor,   interest earned   ( Figure  1–2   b ) is the fi nal amount minus the initial amount, or principal.

Interest  earned total = amount now - principal

 Interest earned over a specifi c period of time is expressed as a percentage of the original amount and is called   rate of return (ROR).




 The time unit for rate of return is called the   interest period,  just as for the borrower’s perspective. Again, the most common period is 1 year.
 
 The term   return on investment (ROI)  is used equivalently with ROR in different industries and settings, especially where large capital funds are committed to engineering-oriented  programs.
 
 The numerical values in Equations [1.2] and [1.4] are the same, but the term   interest rate paid  is more appropriate for the borrower’s perspective, while the   rate of return earned  is better for the investor’s perspective. 

EXAMPLE 1.3 Interest Rate and Rate of Return


An employee at LaserKinetics.com borrows $10,000 on May 1 and must repay a total of  $10,700 exactly 1 year later. Determine the interest amount and the interest rate paid.

 Solution

 The perspective here is that of the borrower since $10,700 repays a loan. Apply Equation [1.1] to determine the interest paid.

 Interest  paid = $10,700 - 10,000 = $700

 Equation [1.2] determines the interest rate paid for 1 year.


Interest Rate and Rate of Return


Interest  is the manifestation of the time value of money. Computationally, interest is the difference between an ending amount of money and the beginning amount. If the difference is zero or negative, there is no interest. There are always two perspectives to an amount of interest—interest paid and interest earned.

These are illustrated in  Figure 1–2 . Interest is   paid  when a person or organization borrowed money (obtained a loan) and repays a larger amount over time. Interest is   earned when a person or organization saved, invested, or lent money and obtains a return of a larger amount over time. The numerical values and formulas used are the same for both perspectives, but the interpretations are different.  

Interest paid  on borrowed funds (a loan) is determined using the original amount, also called the   principal,

  Interest = amount owed now -  principal

When interest paid over a   specifi c time unit  is expressed as a percentage of the principal, the result is called the   interest rate.


The time unit of the rate is called the   interest period.  By far the most common interest period used to state an interest rate is 1 year. Shorter time periods can be used, such as 1% per month.
Thus, the interest period of the interest rate should always be included. If only the rate is stated, for example, 8.5%, a 1-year interest period is assumed. 

  Figure 1–2  
(a) Interest paid over time to lender. (b) Interest earned over time by investor.


EXAMPLE 1.2 - Economic Decisions

Jamie is an engineer employed by Burris, a United States–based company that develops sub- way and surface transportation systems for medium-sized municipalities in the United States and Canada. He has been a registered professional engineer (PE) for the last 15 years. Last year, Carol, an engineer friend from university days who works as an individual consultant, asked Jamie to help her with some cost estimates on a metro train job. Carol offered to pay for his time and talent, but Jamie saw no reason to take money for helping with data commonly used by him in performing his job at Burris. The estimates took one weekend to complete, and once Jamie delivered them to Carol, he did not hear from her again; nor did he learn the identity of the company for which Carol was preparing the estimates.

Yesterday, Jamie was called into his supervisor’s offi ce and told that Burris had not received the contract award in Sharpstown, where a metro system is to be installed. The project estimates were prepared by Jamie and others at Burris over the past several months. This job was greatly needed by Burris, as the country and most municipalities were in a real economic slump, so much so that Burris was considering furloughing several engineers if the Sharpstown bid was not accepted. Jamie was told he was to be laid off immediately, not because the bid was rejected, but because he had been secretly working without management approval for a prime consultant of Burris’ main competitor. Jamie was astounded and angry. He knew he had done nothing to warrant fi ring, but the evidence was clearly there. The numbers used by the competitor to win the Sharpstown award were the same numbers that Jamie had prepared for Burris on this bid, and they closely matched the values that he gave Carol when he helped her.

Jamie was told he was fortunate, because Burris’ president had decided to not legally charge Jamie with unethical behavior and to not request that his PE license be rescinded. As a result, Jamie was escorted out of his offi ce and the building within one hour and told to not ask anyone at Burris for a reference letter if he attempted to get another engineering job.

Discuss the ethical dimensions of this situation for Jamie, Carol, and Burris’ management. Refer to the NSPE Code of Ethics for Engineers (Appendix C) for specifi c points of concern.

Solution

There are several obvious errors and omissions present in the actions of Jamie, Carol, and  B urris’ management in this situation. Some of these mistakes, oversights, and possible code  violations are summarized here.

Jamie 

•     Did not learn identity of company Carol was working for and whether the company was to
be a bidder on the Sharpstown project
•     Helped  a  friend  with  confi  dential data, probably innocently, without the knowledge or approval of his employer
•     Assisted a competitor, probably unknowingly, without the knowledge or approval of his employer
•     Likely violated, at least, Code of Ethics for Engineers section II.1.c, which reads, “Engineers shall not reveal facts, data, or information without the prior consent of the client or employer except as authorized or required by law or this Code.” 

Carol

•     Did not share the intended use of Jamie’s work
•     Did not seek information from Jamie concerning his employer’s intention to bid on the
same project as her client
•     Misled Jamie in that she did not seek approval from Jamie to use and quote his information
and assistance
•     Did not inform her client that portions of her work originated from a source employed by a
possible bid competitor
•     Likely violated, at least, Code of Ethics for Engineers section III.9.a, which reads, “Engi-
neers shall, whenever possible, name the person or persons who may be individually re-
sponsible for designs, inventions, writings, or other accomplishments.”

Burris’  management 

•     Acted too fast in dismissing Jamie; they should have listened to Jamie and conducted an
investigation 
•     Did not put him on administrative leave during a review
•     Possibly did not take Jamie’s previous good work record into account

These are not all ethical considerations; some are just plain good business practices for Jamie, Carol, and Burris.

Professional Ethics and Economic Decisions

Many of the fundamentals of engineering ethics are intertwined with the roles of money and economics-based decisions in the making of professionally ethical judgments. Some of these integral connections are discussed here, plus sections in later chapters discuss additional aspects  of ethics and economics. For example, Benefit/Cost Analysis and Public Sector Eco-nomics, includes material on the ethics of public project contracts and public policy. Although it  is very limited in scope and space, it is anticipated that this coverage of the important role of  economics in engineering ethics will prompt further interest on the part of students and instructors of engineering economy.

The terms   morals  and   ethics  are commonly used interchangeably, yet they have slightly different interpretations. Morals usually relate to the underlying tenets that form the character and conduct of a person in judging right and wrong. Ethical practices can be evaluated by using a code of morals or   code of ethics  that forms the standards to guide decisions and actions of individuals and organizations in a profession, for example, electrical, chemical, mechanical, industrial, or civil engineering. There are several different levels and types of morals and ethics.

Universal  or  common  morals    These are fundamental moral beliefs held by virtually all people. Most people agree that to steal, murder, lie, or physically harm someone is wrong.  

It is possible for   actions  and   intentions  to come into confl ict concerning a common moral.

Consider the World Trade Center buildings in New York City. After their collapse on September 11, 2001, it was apparent that the design was not suffi  cient to withstand the heat generated by the fi  restorm caused by the impact of an aircraft. The structural engineers who worked on the design surely did not have the intent to harm or kill occupants in the buildings. However, their design actions did not foresee this outcome as a measurable possibility. Did they violate the common moral belief of not doing harm to others or murdering?

Individual  or  personal  morals   These are the moral beliefs that a person has and maintains over time. These usually parallel the common morals in that stealing, lying, murdering, etc. are immoral acts. 

It is quite possible that an individual strongly supports the common morals and has excellent personal morals, but these may confl ict from time to time when decisions must be made. Consider the engineering student who genuinely believes that cheating is wrong. If he or she does not know how to work some test problems, but must make a certain minimum grade on the fi  nal exam to graduate, the decision to cheat or not on the fi nal exam is an exercise in following or violating a personal moral.

Professional  or  engineering  ethics   Professionals in a specifi c discipline are guided in their decision making and performance of work activities by a formal standard or code. The code states the commonly accepted standards of honesty and integrity that each individual is expected to demonstrate in her or his practice. There are codes of ethics for medical doctors, attorneys, and, of course, engineers. 

Although each engineering profession has its own code of ethics, the   Code of Ethics for Engineers  published by the National Society of Professional Engineers (NSPE) is very commonly used and quoted.

This code, reprinted in its entirety in Appendix C, includes numerous sections that have direct or indirect economic and fi nancial impact upon the designs, actions, and decisions that engineers make in their professional dealings. Here are three examples from the Code:   “Engineers, in the fulfi llment of their duties, shall hold paramount the   safety, health, and wel- fare of the public .”  “Engineers  shall    not accept fi nancial or other considerations , including free engineering designs, from material or equipment suppliers for specifying their product.”  “Engineers using designs supplied by a client recognize that the   designs remain the property of the client  and may not be duplicated by the engineer for others without express permission.”

As with common and personal morals, confl  icts can easily rise in the mind of an engineer between his or her own ethics and that of the employing corporation. Consider a manufacturing engineer who has recently come to fi  rmly disagree morally with war and its negative effects on human beings. Suppose the engineer has worked for years in a military defense contractor’s facility and does the detailed cost estimations and economic evaluations of producing fi  ghter jets for the Air Force. The Code of Ethics for Engineers is silent on the ethics of producing and using war materiel. Although the employer and the engineer are not violating any ethics code, the engineer, as an individual, is stressed in this position. Like many people during a declining national economy, retention of this job is of paramount importance to the family and the engineer. Conflicts such as this can place individuals in real dilemmas with no or mostly  unsatisfactory alternatives.

At fi  rst thought, it may not be apparent how activities related to engineering economics may present an ethical challenge to an individual, a company, or a public servant in government service. Many money-related situations, such as those that follow, can have ethical dimensions.

In the design stage: 

•     Safety factors are compromised to ensure that a price bid comes in as low as possible. 
•     Family or personal connections with individuals in a company offer unfair or insider informa-
tion that allows costs to be cut in strategic areas of a project. 
•     A  potential  vendor  offers  specifi  cations for company-specifi c equipment, and the design engi-
neer does not have suffi cient time to determine if this equipment will meet the needs of the
project being designed and costed.   

While the system is operating: 

•     Delayed or below-standard maintenance can be performed to save money when cost overruns exist in other segments of a project. 
•     Opportunities to purchase cheaper repair parts can save money for a subcontractor working on a fi  xed-price contract. 
•     Safety margins are compromised because of cost, personal inconvenience to workers, tight time  schedules,  etc.   

A good example of the last item—safety is compromised while operating the system—is the situation that arose in 1984 in Bhopal, India (Martin and Schinzinger 2005, pp. 245–8). A Union Carbide plant manufacturing the highly toxic pesticide chemical methyl isocyanate (MIC) experienced a large gas leak from high-pressure tanks. Some 500,000 persons were exposed to inhalation of this deadly gas that burns moist parts of the body. There were 2500 to 3000 deaths within days, and over the following 10-year period, some 12,000 death claims and 870,000 personal injury claims were recorded. Although Union Carbide owned the facility, the Indian government had only Indian workers in the plant. Safety practices clearly eroded due to cost-cutting measures, insuffi cient repair parts, and reduction in personnel to save salary money. However, one of the surprising practices that caused unnecessary harm to workers was the fact that masks, gloves, and other protective gear were not worn by workers in close proximity to the tanks containing

MIC. Why? Unlike in plants in the United States and other countries, there was no air conditioning in the Indian plant, resulting in high ambient temperatures in the facility.

Many ethical questions arise when corporations operate in international settings where the corporate rules, worker incentives, cultural practices, and costs in the home country differ from those in the host country. Often these ethical dilemmas are fundamentally based in the economics that provide cheaper labor, reduced raw material costs, less government oversight, and a host of other cost-reducing factors. When an engineering economy study is performed, it is important for the engineer performing the study to consider all ethically related matters to ensure that the cost and revenue estimates refl ect what is likely to happen once the project or system is operating.

It is important to understand that the translation from universal morals to personal morals and professional ethics does vary from one culture and country to another. As an example, consider the common belief (universal moral) that the awarding of contracts and fi nancial arrangements for services to be performed (for government or business) should be accomplished in a fair and transparent fashion. In some societies and cultures, corruption in the process of contract making is common and often “overlooked” by the local authorities, who may also be involved in the affairs. Are these im- moral or unethical practices? Most would say, “Yes, this should not be allowed. Find and punish the individuals involved.” Yet, such practices do continue, thus indicating the differences in interpretation of common morals as they are translated into the ethics of individuals and professionals.

EXAMPLE 1.2 - Economic Decisions

Steps in an Engineering Economy Study - Problem Description and Objective Statement, Alternatives, Cash Flows, Engineering Economy Analysis, Selection of the Best Alternative.

Problem Description and Objective Statement      A succinct statement of the problem and  primary objective(s) is very important to the formation of an alternative solution. As an illustration, assume the problem is that a coal-fueled power plant must be shut down by 2015 due to the  production of excessive sulfur dioxide. The objectives may be to generate the forecasted  electricity needed for 2015 and beyond, plus to not exceed all the projected emission allowances in these  future years. 

Alternatives     These are stand-alone descriptions of viable solutions to problems that can meet  the objectives. Words, pictures, graphs, equipment and service descriptions, simulations, etc.  define each alternative. The best estimates for parameters are also part of the alternative. Some  parameters include equipment first cost, expected life, salvage value (estimated trade-in, resale,  or market value), and annual operating cost (AOC), which can also be termed   maintenance and  operating  (M&O)   cost,  and subcontract cost for specific services. If changes in income (revenue)  may occur, this parameter must be estimated.

Detailing all viable alternatives at this stage is crucial. For example, if two alternatives are
described and analyzed, one will likely be selected and implementation initiated. If a third, more
attractive method that was available is later recognized, a wrong decision was made. 

Cash Flows      All  cash  flows are estimated for each alternative. Since these are future expenditures and revenues, the results of step 3 usually prove to be inaccurate when an alternative is actually in place and operating. When cash flow estimates for specific parameters are expected to vary significantly from a   point estimate  made now, risk and sensitivity analyses (step 5) are needed to improve the chances of selecting the best alternative. Sizable variation is usually ex-pected in estimates of revenues, AOC, salvage values, and subcontractor costs. The elements of variation (risk) and sensitivity analysis are included throughout the text. 

Engineering Economy Analysis      The techniques and computations that you will learn and  use throughout this text utilize the cash flow estimates, time value of money, and a selected  measure of worth. The result of the analysis will be one or more numerical values; this can be  in one of several terms, such as money, an interest rate, number of years, or a probability. In  the end, a selected measure of worth mentioned in the previous section will be used to select  the best alternative.

Before an economic analysis technique is applied to the cash flows, some decisions about what to include in the analysis must be made. Two important possibilities are taxes and  inflation. Federal, state or provincial, county, and city taxes will impact the costs of every alternative. An after-tax analysis includes some additional estimates and methods compared to  a  before-tax a nalysis. If taxes and inflation are expected to impact all alternatives equally, they  may be disregarded in the analysis. However, if the size of these projected costs is important,  taxes and inflation should be considered. Also, if the impact of inflation over time is important  to the decision, an additional set of computations must be added to the analysis.

Selection of the Best Alternative      The measure of worth is a primary basis for selecting  the best economic alternative. For example, if alternative A has a rate of return (ROR) of  15.2% per year and alternative B will result in an ROR of 16.9% per year, B is better eco- nomically. However, there can always be   noneconomic or intangible factors  that must be  considered and that may alter the decision. There are many possible noneconomic factors;  some typical ones are

   •     Market pressures, such as need for an increased international presence 
   •     Availability of certain resources, e.g., skilled labor force, water, power, tax incentives 
   •     Government laws that dictate safety, environmental, legal, or other aspects 
   •     Corporate management’s or the board of director’s interest in a particular alternative 
   •     Goodwill offered by an alternative toward a group: employees, union, county, etc.   

As indicated in  Figure 1–1 , once all the economic, noneconomic, and risk factors have been
evaluated, a final decision of the “best” alternative is made.
  
At times, only one viable alternative is identified. In this case, the   do-nothing (DN) alterna-
tive  may be chosen provided the measure of worth and other factors result in the alternative being
a poor choice. The do-nothing alternative maintains the status quo.

Whether we are aware of it or not, we use criteria every day to choose between alternatives.
For example, when you drive to campus, you decide to take the “best” route. But how did you  defi  ne   best?  Was the best route the safest, shortest, fastest, cheapest, most scenic, or what? Obvi- ously, depending upon which criterion or combination of criteria is used to identify the best, a  different route might be selected each time. In economic analysis,   financial units (dollars or  other currency)  are generally used as the tangible basis for evaluation. Thus, when there are  several ways of accomplishing a stated objective, the alternative with the lowest overall cost or  highest overall net income is selected.
 Steps in an engineering economy study.
  Figure 1–1  Steps in an engineering economy study.

Performing an Engineering Economy Study

An engineering economy study involves many elements: problem identification, definition of the
objective, cash flow estimation, financial analysis, and decision making. Implementing a structured procedure is the best approach to select the best solution to the problem.

The steps in an engineering economy study are as follows:

    1.    Identify and understand the problem; identify the objective of the project. 
    2.    Collect relevant, available data and define viable solution alternatives. 
    3.    Make realistic cash flow estimates. 
    4.    Identify an economic measure of worth criterion for decision making.
    5.    Evaluate each alternative; consider noneconomic factors; use sensitivity analysis as needed. 
    6.    Select the best alternative. 
    7.    Implement the solution and monitor the results. 

Technically, the last step is not part of the economy study, but it is, of course, a step needed to meet the project objective. There may be occasions when the best economic alternative requires more capital funds than are available, or significant noneconomic factors preclude the most economic alternative from being chosen. Accordingly, steps 5 and 6 may result in selection of an alternative different from the economically best one. Also, sometimes more than one project may be selected and implemented. This occurs when projects are independent of one another.

In this case, steps 5 through 7 vary from those above.  Figure 1–1  illustrates the steps above for  one alternative. Descriptions of several of the elements in the steps are important to understand.

Steps in an Engineering Economy Study - Problem Description and Objective Statement, Alternatives, Cash Flows, Engineering Economy Analysis, Selection of the Best Alternative.


 Steps in an engineering economy study.
  Figure 1–1  Steps in an engineering economy study.

Example 1.1 Illustrates the Fundamental Nature of Variation in Estimates

An engineer is performing an analysis of warranty costs for drive train repairs within the fi  rst  year of ownership of luxury cars purchased in the United States. He found the average cost (to  the nearest dollar) to be $570 per repair from data taken over a 5-year period.


What range of repair costs should the engineer use to ensure that the analysis is sensitive to  changing warranty costs?

Solution

At  first glance the range should be approximately –25% to 15% of the $570 average cost to  include the low of $430 and high of $650. However, the last 3 years of costs are higher and  more consistent with an average of $631. The observed values are approximately ±3% of this  more recent average.

If the analysis is to use the most recent data and trends, a range of, say, ± 5% of $630 is recommended. If, however, the analysis is to be more inclusive of historical data and trends, a range  of, say, ± 20% or ± 25% of $570 is recommended.  

Engineering Economics: Description and Role in Decision Making

Decisions are made routinely to choose one alternative over another by individuals in everyday life; by engineers on the job; by managers who supervise the activities of others; by corporate presidents who operate a business; and by government officials who work for the public good.

Most decisions involve money, called   capital  or   capital funds , which is usually limited in  amount. The decision of where and how to invest this limited capital is motivated by a primary  goal of   adding value  as future, anticipated results of the selected alternative are realized.

Engineers play a vital role in capital investment decisions based upon their ability and experience  to design, analyze, and synthesize. The factors upon which a decision is based are commonly a  combination of economic and noneconomic elements. Engineering economy deals with the  economic factors. By definition,

Engineering economy involves formulating, estimating, and evaluating the expected economic outcomes of alternatives designed to accomplish a defined purpose. Mathematical techniques simplify the economic evaluation of alternatives.

Because the formulas and techniques used in engineering economics are applicable to all  types of money matters, they are equally useful in business and government, as well as for  individuals.   Therefore, besides applications to projects in your future jobs, what you learn  from this book and in this course may well offer you an economic analysis tool for making  personal decisions such as car purchases, house purchases, major purchases on credit, e.g.,  furniture, appliances, and electronics.

Other terms that mean the same as   engineering economy  are   engineering economic analysis,  capital allocation study, economic analysis,  and similar descriptors.

People make decisions; computers, mathematics, concepts, and guidelines assist people in  their decision-making process. Since most decisions affect what will be done, the time frame of  engineering economy is primarily the   future . Therefore, the numbers used in engineering econ- omy are   best estimates of what is expected to occur . The estimates and the decision usually  involve four essential elements:

  - Cash flows   
  - Times of occurrence of cash flows  
  - Interest rates for time value of money  
  - Measure of economic worth for selecting an alternative
  

Since the estimates of cash flow amounts and timing are about the future, they will be some- what different than what is actually observed, due to changing circumstances and unplanned  events. In short, the variation between an amount or time estimated now and that observed in the future is caused by the stochastic (random) nature of all economic events.   Sensitivity  analysis  is utilized to determine how a decision might change according to varying esti- mates, especially those expected to vary widely. Example 1.1 illustrates the fundamental  nature of variation in estimates and how this variation may be included in the analysis at a  very basic level.

All these measures of worth account for the fact that money makes money over time. This is the  concept of the   time value of money.

It is a well-known fact that money   makes  money. The time value of money explains the change  in the amount of money   over time  for funds that are owned (invested) or owed (borrowed). This is the most important concept in engineering economy.

The time value of money is very obvious in the world of economics. If we decide to invest  capital (money) in a project today, we inherently expect to have more money in the future than  we invested. If we borrow money today, in one form or another, we expect to return the original  amount plus some additional amount of money.

Engineering economics is equally well suited for the future and for the analysis of past cash  flows  in order to determine if a specific criterion (measure of worth) was attained. For example, assume you invested $4975 exactly 3 years ago in 53 shares of IBM stock as traded on the New

York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at $93.86 per share. You expect to make 8% per year appreciation,  not considering any dividends that IBM may declare. A quick check of the share value shows it  is currently worth $127.25 per share for a total of $6744.25. This increase in value represents a  rate of return of 10.67% per year. (These type of calculations are explained later.) This past  investment has well exceeded the 8% per year criterion over the last 3 years.